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But this is premature. The war has set in motion a far broader process of destabilisation. Three dynamics account for this:

Firstly, the conflict has heightened ethnic tensions, leaving Tigrayans feeling threatened by their neighbours and alienated from the federal government – a sentiment that is sure to play to the insurgency.

Secondly, the war is colouring public perceptions of the goal of Abiy Ahmed’s national political project, creating the sense that it may be about centralising power – and doing so to the benefit of the Amhara ethnic group rather than genuine reform.

Thirdly, the TPLF’s insurgency strategy has a strong Eritrean element, the pursuit of which will further regionalise the conflict.

ECFR’S Africa programme’s key recommendations for European engagement in Ethiopia include:

• European countries’ diplomatic response to the crisis should focus on the destructive relationship between Eritrea’s participation in the war and the TPLF’s survival strategy.
• Although European governments are considering whether to cut some of their aid to Ethiopia in response to these alleged crimes, their position on the political solution is less forceful. They are deferring to African leaders on the issue. But, given that the African Union will struggle to confront a member state as influential as Ethiopia, this deference is unlikely to help Europeans achieve their aims.
• Europe is currently the only actor that can bring the international community together on the conflict in Ethiopia. The US, which will make this issue a priority under the Biden administration, remains in an interregnum. The African Union and well-intentioned states on the Horn of Africa will need Europe’s political support if they are to help resolve the conflict.

Theodore Murphy, director of ECFR’s Africa programme, comments:
“European leaders could begin to help by gathering the currently disparate international players in the region, with a view to fashioning a core group that can achieve progress towards a political solution. Europeans can help avert further conflict in Ethiopia – but they need to act now.”